Why heavy load-shedding in Pakistan — and will it get worse?

Pakistan is facing renewed load-shedding due to a widening power shortfall, disrupted LNG supply, and rising demand, with experts warning the situation could worsen in the coming weeks.

MEDIABITES – Webdesk

Pakistan is once again witnessing rising electricity outages, leaving citizens asking a familiar question: why is load-shedding back — and is it here to stay?

According to officials, the country is currently facing a power shortfall of around 4,500 megawatts, with demand at approximately 18,000MW and generation hovering near 13,500MW.

What’s causing the load-shedding?

The government says the outages are part of a “peak relief strategy” aimed at managing supply during high-demand hours, particularly between 5 pm and 1 am.

Officials claim controlled load management is helping prevent a sharp increase in electricity tariffs, which could otherwise rise by Rs5–6 per unit.

However, multiple factors are behind the crisis:

• LNG supply disruption: Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have affected LNG imports, a key fuel source for power plants generating up to 5,000MW.
• Low hydropower output: Seasonal decline in water levels has reduced electricity generation from dams.
• Expensive alternatives avoided: Authorities are reluctant to rely on costly fuel sources like diesel, which would significantly raise electricity prices.

Public frustration grows

The return of load-shedding — even in April, when demand is relatively moderate — has sparked frustration across the country, with many recalling the severe outages of 2011.

Reports indicate outages occur multiple times a day, even late at night, raising concerns about poor planning and management.

Will it get worse?

Experts warn the situation could deteriorate further in the coming weeks.

As temperatures rise, electricity demand is expected to surge, especially with increased use of air conditioners. If LNG supply remains disrupted and the shortfall widens, load-shedding hours could increase significantly.

Analysts estimate that actual power generation may fall between 12,000 and 13,000MW, while demand could climb beyond 18,000MW, deepening the crisis.

Outlook

With supply constraints, global energy disruptions, and rising demand converging, Pakistan appears to be heading toward a prolonged energy crunch — unless immediate corrective measures are taken.

For now, the key question remains:
Is this a temporary setback — or the return of a full-blown power crisis?