Is Pakistan’s February vote already rigged?

As Pakistan approaches its 12th general elections on February 8, concerns about potential manipulation and a lack of fairness are growing. The pre-election period has witnessed a crackdown by state authorities against the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its leader, Imran Khan, who has been in jail since August 2023 on charges including corruption.

The PTI has faced challenges, with numerous leaders quitting or defecting amid alleged intimidation. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) rejected nomination papers from several PTI candidates, including Khan, leading to concerns of rigging and an unfair contest.

Historically, allegations of election manipulation have been common in Pakistan, with instances of rigging reported in previous elections. The upcoming polls are perceived as potentially manipulated, with critics pointing to the PTI’s mistreatment by state authorities as evidence. Imran Khan’s imprisonment and the rejection of PTI candidates’ nomination papers add to fears of a manipulated vote.

The military’s role in Pakistani politics has been a recurring concern, with accusations of interference and manipulation. Analysts suggest that the military might be favoring the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has seen legal hurdles dropped against his candidature. The current political environment is described as farcical, with changing parties and leaders but similar patterns of manipulation.

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Analysts argue that the run-up to the 2024 polls is fundamentally unfair, with some using the term “election engineering” to describe the process. While manipulation tactics appear consistent, there is perceived stronger resistance this time, particularly from the PTI, which has successfully popularized a narrative of victimhood. Imran Khan’s popularity surged after his removal from office, blaming a conspiracy involving the U.S. and the Pakistani military.

With Imran Khan in jail, the PTI is facing challenges, and the political landscape is marked by a struggle for survival. Some observers see a deeper political and social shift underway in Pakistan in 2024, with intensified contradictions in the state leading to increased antagonism in society and institutions.

Critics argue that political parties in Pakistan have traditionally played a negative role, often aligning with the establishment for personal gains. Calls for accountability and a shift away from opportunistic alliances with the establishment are emphasized, urging political parties to engage in dialogue and strengthen democracy rather than pursue a zero-sum game.

In summary, concerns about potential manipulation, historical patterns of rigging, and the military’s influence characterize the lead-up to Pakistan’s upcoming general elections, creating a challenging and contentious political environment.