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The head of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F), Maulana Fazlur Rehman, has submitted nomination papers for the National Assembly constituency NA-44 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, apart from filing papers for National Assembly constituency NA-265 in Pishin district, Balochistan.
This is the first time that Maulana Fazlur Rehman is contesting elections from a province 500 kilometers away from his native district other than Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The politics of this district and constituency are influenced by religious and Pashtun nationalist parties.
Why did Maulana Fazlur Rehman choose this constituency?
To understand this decision, analysts delve into Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s traditional constituency, Dera Ismail Khan, and his electoral politics.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman entered electoral politics for the first time in 1988 following his father’s demise. Since then, he has been a member of the National Assembly five times, serving as a member of the National Assembly, head of the Foreign Affairs Committee, leader of the opposition, president of the MMA, and a candidate for the presidency and prime ministership.
In the 2018 elections, Maulana Fazlur Rehman faced a significant defeat in both constituencies of Dera Ismail Khan, NA-38 and NA-39, against PTI candidates by a large margin. After this defeat, he was out of the National Assembly for the first time since 2002.
After this defeat, JUI’s leader raised questions about the transparency of the elections and led a protest movement. Now, once again, Maulana Fazlur Rehman is a candidate for two National Assembly constituencies. One is NA-44 in Dera Ismail Khan, and the other is NA-265 in Pishin.
NA-44 Dera Ismail Khan:
NA-44 Dera Ismail Khan comprises urban areas. From 1988 to 1997, it was known as NA-18, from 2002 to 2013 as NA-24, and in the 2018 elections, it was designated as NA-38.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman achieved success in this constituency for the first time in 1988. Before him, his father, Mufti Mahmood, also succeeded twice from this constituency in 1972 and 1977.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman has been successful in the National Assembly constituencies from Dera Ismail Khan in 1988, 1993, 2002, and 2013. However, he faced defeat four times from 1990 to 2018.
In 1990, he was defeated by Fazl Kareem Kundi of the People’s Party in Pakistan Democratic Alliance. In 1997, Sardar Omar Farooq Khan of the Muslim League (N) defeated him. In 2008, Faisal Kareem Kundi of the People’s Party, and in 2018, Ali Amin Khan Gandapur of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf defeated him.
NA-265 Pishin:
This constituency is located in the Pishin district, with a population of 835,000, primarily consisting of Pashtuns.
Pishin is the third-largest district in Balochistan after Kech and Khuzdar. Tribes like Kakar, Tareen, Syed, Achakzai, and others inhabit this region.
Pishin shares its borders with Quetta, Ziarat, Loralai, and Qilla Saifullah, and it also shares borders with Afghanistan.
From 1988 to 1997, this constituency was designated as NA-198 and included Qilla Abdullah and Pishin districts. In 2002, Qilla Abdullah was separated, and Ziarat was added, forming NA-261 Pishin-Qilla Ziarat. In 2018, Ziarat was detached, and only Pishin district constituted NA-262. In the 2023 electoral constituency delimitation, it has been named NA-265 Pishin.
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Since the 1988 elections, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has been successful six out of eight times in this constituency. In 1990 and 1993, twice the head of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, became a Member of the National Assembly (MNA) from here. In 1993, due to Mahmood Khan Achakzai vacating the seat for by-elections, his brother Hameed Khan was successful.
In 1988 and 1977, JUI’s Maulvi Abdul Ghani became an MNA from this constituency. In 2002, Gul Muhammad Dumar, in 2008 and 2013, twice Maulvi Agha Muhammad, and in 2018, Kamal Ud Din of JUI or MMA won the seat from Pishin.
In the 2018 elections, Kamal Ud Din secured a victory with a margin of 22,000 votes against the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party candidate.
This constituency has consistently witnessed a contest between Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, except for the boycott in 2008. In the 2013 elections, Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party’s Asad Roshan faced defeat with only 524 votes. Thus, this constituency is referred to as the stronghold of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam after 2013.
In 2013 and 2018, Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party’s candidate Asad Roshan, now affiliated with Khushhal Khan Kakar’s group after parting ways with Mahmood Khan Achakzai in 2018, is contesting. Apart from Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, the head of Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, and Khushhal Khan Kakar, who left Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party to form Pashtunkhwa National Awami Party, have also submitted their nomination papers for this constituency.
Analysts suggest that there are strong ties between Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Mahmood Khan Achakzai at present, and there is a possibility that, through seat adjustment, Mahmood Khan Achakzai might support Maulana Fazlur Rehman in this constituency.
In exchange, JUI might withdraw its candidate from the Chaman and Qilla Abdullah constituencies, where Mahmood Khan Achakzai is contesting for the National Assembly seat.
In case of contestation by Mahmood Khan Achakzai, Maulana Fazlur Rehman will face the challenge of former Senator Usman Kakar’s son Khushhal Khan Kakar. Khushhal Khan Kakar, who formed a new party named Pakhtunkhwa National Awami Party a year ago after separating from his father’s party, will be Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s opponent in this constituency.
Journalist Agha Obaid, who has connections to Pishin, suggests that historically, there has always been a contest between Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) in this constituency. However, this time, there is an atmosphere of unity between both parties. In the form of this alliance with Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s position will strengthen further, but he will face a strong contender in the shape of Khushhal Khan Kakar.
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He says, “Khushhal Khan Kakar is participating in elections for the first time. He is a young individual, and due to the sudden demise of his father, he might garner sympathy and tribal support, and the Kakar tribe’s vote may go in his favor. The Kakar tribe constitutes the majority of Pashtuns in Pishin. Additionally, he may receive support from the Barchi Kakar group, Awami National Party, and National Democratic Movement.”
He further states, “It is also possible that the leadership of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in opposition to Maulana Fazlur Rehman, may endorse their candidate in favor of Khushhal Khan Kakar. In such a scenario, Maulana Fazlur Rehman could face difficulties.”
Local journalist Sami Tarin in Pishin believes that Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s position is very strong, and the chances of success in this constituency are quite high for him.
He says, “In the previous elections, in Pishin, all three seats of the provincial assembly were won by Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. However, this time, the distribution of tickets for provincial constituencies has created internal divisions within Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. In Pishin for Provincial Assembly seat PB-49, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam has three candidates, and this division can be detrimental to JUI.”
Agha Obaid suggests, “The MNAs and MPAs successful from Pishin from 2002 till now, including Maulvi Agha Muhammad and Kamal Ud Din Toshazai, were less vocal in the National and Provincial Assemblies. Their performance might have been notable, and this performance could also impact Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam’s vote bank negatively.”
It’s worth noting that Pishin has historically been a stronghold for JUI, but the emerging political dynamics and alliances might bring about a shift in the electoral landscape.
Journalist Agha Obaid provides insights into why Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), chose to contest elections from Pishin. According to him, Maulana Fazlur Rehman considers Pishin’s seat to be relatively safer due to its historical association with his father’s district, Dera Ismail Khan. Pishin has been a stronghold for JUI, and since 1997, JUI candidates have been successful in this constituency on five consecutive occasions.
Senior journalist and analyst Liaqat Ali, who closely observes Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s politics in Peshawar, sheds light on Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s decision to contest from Pishin. He mentions two main reasons:
Maulana Fazlur Rehman wants to present himself as a national leader by contesting elections from different provinces and constituencies, similar to leaders like Mian Nawaz Sharif, Bilawal Bhutto, and Imran Khan. However, there is no safe electoral constituency for him nationally like Balochistan’s Pishin.
Liaqat Ali further explains, “The second reason is the threat of defeat in Dera Ismail Khan’s constituency. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has not been successful in the area’s politics and elections against his opponents. Therefore, Dera Ismail Khan is not a strong constituency for him.”
He highlights that Maulana Fazlur Rehman faces challenges in reaching out to the common voters in Dera Ismail Khan, while his opponent Ali Amin Gandapur, and his family members have always been active in the constituency, participating in events like sports competitions, establishing police stations, resolving issues related to electricity and roads, which has gained them acceptance among the local people.
Liaqat Ali notes, “The history of this constituency also shows that Maulana has sometimes won and sometimes lost. In the 90s, in the era of the 90s, Amir Farooq Khan Khilji, in 2008 Faisal Karim Kundi, and in 2018 Ali Amin Gandapur defeated him.”
Pishin’s constituency NA-44, where Maulana Fazlur Rehman is contesting along with PTI’s Ali Amin Gandapur, his brother Faisal Amin, PPP’s Faisal Karim Kundi, and PML-N’s Waqar Ahmed Khan, is considered challenging. In the previous elections, Ali Amin Gandapur defeated Maulana Fazlur Rehman with 36,000 votes.
Experts suggest that although the situation is not favorable for PTI in 2018, this time the real competition for Maulana will be with Ali Amin Gandapur or the alternative PTI candidate. Liaqat Ali believes, “Despite the popularity of Imran Khan, the successful politics of Ali Amin Gandapur has posed challenges for Maulana Fazlur Rehman.
Considering these factors, the current situation, and past failures, Maulana Fazlur Rehman faced a risk in Dera Ismail Khan. Therefore, he chose to contest from Balochistan, known as the stronghold of JUI, maybe to avoid taking any risks.”
However, Chaudhry Ashfaq Advocate, the general secretary of JUI in Dera Ismail Khan, counters this perspective, stating that it’s not about avoiding risks but rather an expression of love and trust from the people of the area. He emphasizes that Maulana Fazlur Rehman decided to contest from Pishin based on the strong insistence and pressure from the local people, as well as the district and provincial leadership of JUI.
