India returns to Kabul as Afghanistan-Pakistan ties sour

India’s embassy reopening in Kabul marks a major regional shift, as strained Afghanistan-Pakistan ties open space for New Delhi’s strategic return — signaling India’s fast-track diplomacy and Pakistan’s waning influence.

WEBDESK – Analysis — By Japan Times

The reopening of India’s embassy in Kabul is not just a diplomatic gesture — it’s a signal of a seismic shift in the regional balance of power, driven by the cooling relations between Afghanistan’s Taliban-ruled government and Pakistan.

A turning point in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations

What once appeared as a natural alignment between Afghanistan and Pakistan has visibly frayed. Cross-border airstrikes from Pakistan earlier this month triggered a sharp deterioration in bilateral ties — a rift that has opened space for India. (The Japan Times) With Pakistan’s influence in Kabul facing increasing questions, India has stepped in at just the right moment.

India’s strategic re-engagement

By choosing to reopen its embassy in Kabul on October 21, India signals that it is ready to engage with the government in power — even if it is unsavoury — to safeguard long-term interests. (The Japan Times) In doing so, New Delhi moves from the sidelines into active regional diplomacy, positioning itself as a reliable alternative for Afghanistan amid Pakistan’s outreach fatigue.

What this means for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the narrative of “strategic depth” in Afghanistan is under strain. Islamabad’s patronage of the Taliban has not translated into durable influence, and the recent breakdown in trust and border stability has exposed the limits of its policy. While Pakistan once held the upper hand in Kabul, the pivot by Afghanistan towards other partners undercuts that advantage.

Why the timing matters

Several factors make this moment ripe:

• The Taliban’s growing assertion of autonomy reduces Pakistan’s sway.
• India views Afghanistan as a critical arena in its bid to balance regional actors, including China.
• And above all, the opening created by the Afghanistan-Pakistan split allows India to project influence less constrained by Islamabad.

The broader implications

• This move may spur other democracies — as the Japan Times suggests — to revisit their Afghanistan policy.
• Pakistan may need to recalibrate its approach: the tools of coercion and influence appear less effective than fresh partnership models.
• For Afghanistan, the diversification of partnerships means less dependency on Pakistan and more agency in its foreign relations.

Final word

In short: India’s return to Kabul isn’t simply an act of diplomatic outreach — it’s a calculated response to Pakistan’s mis­steps and a demonstration of India’s fast-track diplomacy. As Afghanistan distances itself from Pakistan, India is poised to fill the vacuum. And in this emerging order, the old paradigm of Pakistan-led influence is being challenged.