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ISTANBUL (news agencies) — The huge gains made by the opposition in Turkey’s local elections are raising the possibility that the long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling party could step back from some of the populist leader’s more polarizing policies ahead of the next round of voting in four years’ time.
There is no doubt that Sunday’s local polls were a blow to both Erdogan and his Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party, or AKP, which won last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
In the balloting, the main opposition center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP, kept hold of Istanbul and the capital of Ankara by wide margins, but also added wins in conservative provinces — such as Adiyaman and Kilis in the south — to municipalities it gained in the 2019 balloting.
Some analysts said on Monday the outcome was a warning and that they expect Erdogan’s government will pursue a path of “normalization” that also includes soothing ties with NATO allies such as the United States and neighboring Greece — and adopting less antagonistic programs at home.
Erdogan, who has presided over Turkey for more than two decades — as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014 — acknowledged the electoral setback in a speech from the balcony of the presidential palace late Sunday, saying his party had suffered “a loss of altitude” across Turkey.
The people delivered a “message” that AKP will “analyze” by engaging in “courageous” self-criticism, he said.
Seda Demiralp, a political science professor at Isik University in Istanbul, said she has already seen this pattern when Erdogan upset predictions of an opposition win in last May’s elections after the devastating earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people in the country’s south.
Despite its demoralizing performance last year, the CHP won the popular vote in many major cities.
“This was a warning,” Demiralp said. “I expect Erdogan to continue normalization … or (the AKP) will keep losing further.”
Others who have been watching Turkey closely don’t see Erdogan making any radical U-turns or drastic changes in his conservative Islamist policies. But a toning-down may be on the cards.
Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of New York-based consulting firm Teneo, suggests Erdogan may put a brake on his planned constitutional changes that would emphasize “family values” and safeguard, for example, the rights of women wanting to wear Islamic-style headscarves — but which many see as an attack on the rights of the LGBTQ+ community.
Still, “Erdogan will not move towards greater political accommodation, given his aversion to share power, and will not tone down his polarizing rhetoric due to this stinging defeat,” Piccoli said.
Sunday’s elections saw the opposition CHP win 35 of Turkey’s 81 provinces — including the country’s five most populous cities — while Erdogan’s AKP, took 24.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, described the results as unprecedented for Erdogan.
Turnout was around 78%, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency, compared to 87% in last year’s election. The results suggested it was mostly AKP supporters who failed to vote.
“We have never seen him lose like this,” he said. “Now the CHP is leading the AKP in the polls for the first time … This is a landslide for the CHP because they got more votes than the AKP for the first time.”
“Turkey is ready for change,” said Unluhisarcikli.
The elections took place against the backdrop of an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, with voters facing annual inflation that rose to 67% in February. Meanwhile, Erdogan has allowed borrowing costs to rise to 50% in a bid to combat soaring prices.
Erdogan has long been a proponent of an unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to fight inflation and had fired central bank governors who resisted his rate-slashing policies. That runs counter to traditional economic thinking, and many blame Erdogan’s unusual methods for Turkey’s economic turmoil.
Commentators said that although the economic crisis left Erdogan’s popularity largely unaffected in last year’s national polls, AKP voters felt more inclined to express discontent when his name was not on the ballot paper.
