After Trump’s Iran Decision, Get Ready For Middle Eastern Havoc, Specially In Europe. Yes Europe.
All three parts of my March 24th article have come true. North Korea has agreed to denuclearisation. Trump pulled out of the Iran deal. And oil prices soared since that day and will go up further in my view. But is that all ? No. Absolutely not.
The implications are far more than just oil and it’s prices. It is unprecedented in the history of the world of diplomatic manoeuvres that an act which was co-signed by three European allies of America, France, Germany and The United Kingdom, has been reneged upon. The 2015 JCPOA or the lifting of the sanctions off of Iran in return for certain conditions was a multiparty agreement. Not just between America and Iran. If you are a student of history and diplomatic deals, you would already know that the reason several parties become part of an agreement is because there was a lack of trust to begin with and multi party engagement assures that nobody walks away from what they have agreed upon.
France, has big stakes in Iran. UK does regular business with the Iranian companies. Germany being an economic giant and an industrialised nation stands to lose billions in exports to Iran. This is not going to sit well with these countries and for any future diplomatic agreements, the trust level between any country or countries and America will vanish into thin air.
And this pulling out of the agreement will make the Iranian regime an absolute hero in the eyes of the Iranian people. The popularity of the Ayatollahs will sky rocket. They have been saying for decades that America and its allies are not trustworthy. And this proves it. From Khomeini to Khamenei to Roohani to Rafsanjani and even the non Ayatollahs like Banisadr and Ahmedinejad have said the same thing. And as long as Irani leaders have the backing of the Iranian people, they will become aggressive. For two reasons. One that I gave above, the overall public support and two, because what happened on Sunday in the Lebanese elections. Hezbollah swept the elections in Lebanon. Winning more seats than 2009 and Hariri and the party losing 1/3 of its existing seats to Hezbollah.
A strong Hezbollah means a stronger Iran right next door to Israel. And stronger Iran means a stronger Bashar Al Asad in Syria. And because of Hariri losing its grip on the Lebanese Parliament, it means a weaker Saudi Arabia because Hariri is a Saudi candidate. And a weaker Saudi Arabia near Syria means that the newly formed triangular friendship between Israel, America and the Saudis is no longer that strong. And that makes the Yemenis stronger against the Saudis with the help of Iran.
Now France, Germany and the UK who had an unofficial policy avoiding making any public statements condemning the acts of Saudis in Yemen will no longer do the same. These three European nations will very soon take out their anger on America by issuing public statements in favour of Yemen. That will create further tensions in the Middle East.
A war ? I don’t think so. A war of words ? Absolutely. A direct war ? Absolutely not. An increase in intensity of an already existing proxy war of Iran, Saudi, Yemen and Syria. Absolutely yes. Russia will stand with Syria. Syria with Iran. Hezbollah with Syrian officials and against Israel. China will make a policy statement and ask why should they play a role in bringing North Korea to denuclearise when Trump can not deliver his promises and cancels the deals.
The gist of everything written above is simple. America lost its credibility. And Iran despite of all the sanctions stands much stronger than it was yesterday. Get ready for war of words and a few missiles here and there.
What a wonderful world of deceit, lies and enigmas wrapped in betrayals we live in.